A lack of attacking imagination and cohesion at Chelsea can result in a Tottenham win, says Jones Knows who also sees West Ham spoiling Nottingham Forest’s party at the City Ground.
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Jumping to hard conclusions at this time of season rarely bodes well from a betting bank balance perspective, that’s why I’m happy to forgive Nottingham Forest for such a limp and timid performance at Newcastle last weekend.
Steve Cooper’s men produced an expected goals figure of just 0.28 from five shots on goal at St James’ Park and were completely dominated in key areas of the pitch, especially in midfield where Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes showed Forest how to boss a Premier League game.
I’m expecting much greater fizz, enthusiasm and spark from Cooper’s boys as Premier League football returns to the City Ground for the first time in 23 years and 82 days, the longest-ever gap between a team’s matches in Premier League history. Of Forest’s starting line-up last week, Brennan Johnson and Neco Williams had not even been born the last time Forest were playing at this level and the average cost of a pint of lager was £1.90. The glory years.
I’m expecting a raucous, cup-like, atmosphere – something David Moyes will be keen for his team to manage in the opening exchanges. They have the experience and class in midfield with the exceptional Declan Rice to handle themselves early on and then take over as the game progresses.
The Hammers scored 55 per cent of their goals after half-time last season and the Evens for the second half to produce the most goals makes sense for those looking to attack a market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Chelsea vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
The most courageous act is still to think for yourself. Aloud.
It’s time to put that into practice.
No matter how scary it sounds to be putting ultra faith in Tottenham to win a football match at Stamford Bridge, if I’m fully invested in the theory that Spurs are a threat in every competition they play in this season then I simply must back them to beat an undercooked and underwhelming Chelsea side as the outsiders at 21/10 with Sky Bet.
Many of you will be screaming at me right now to point out that Chelsea have lost just one of the last 32 league meetings at home with Spurs, winning 21. But this is a new era at Tottenham with Antonio Conte at the helm. They are going places and are playing with supreme energy whilst Chelsea – on evidence of the last six months – are stagnating.
This is a perfect time for Spurs to be heading to west London.
Thomas Tuchel clearly isn’t happy with the tools at his disposal ahead of the transfer window closing and that was stamped all over their slow and steady showing in the 1-0 win over Everton.
There seemed a lack of attacking imagination and cohesion as they stumbled to an expected goals (non penalties) figure of just 0.86 – quite a staggeringly low amount considering they won 16 corners in the match against a team that can’t defend set pieces. A lack of imagination in forward areas has been a worry in 2022. Chelsea have scored just 34 goals from an expected figure of 32.1 since the turn of the year with Liverpool (46), Man City (50) and Tottenham (51) all showing far greater numbers in the final third.
With Chelsea’s defence still performing amongst the best in the Premier League and Spurs very unlikely to run away with the game, I’m happy to be greedy and boost the price by backing Conte’s men to win by one goal at 7/2.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Tottenham to win by one goal (7/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
If Liverpool bring the same lack of zip, physicality, desire and pressing to the table in their 2-2 draw with Fulham, then those taking the 1/4 with Sky Bet on a home win could be about to go through some financial pain.
A team that usually averaged 19.1 shots per game in the Premier League over the past year and that registers an expected goals figure of 2.50 fell way short of their usual standards, posting just 11 shots and an xG of 1.23. They also recorded the lowest distance ran by any team last weekend and were outrun by Fulham by a margin of just under 7km – only Aston Villa (7km) and Wolves (8.6km) were outrun by a greater distance on the opening weekend.
Jurgen Klopp will have been privately fuming and embarrassed by those numbers.
That makes this absolutely terrible timing for Crystal Palace to head to Anfield. A reaction is expected.
Despite beginning their season with defeat against Arsenal, there were encouraging signs for Patrick Vieira’s side in their approach play but I’m yet to truly be convinced they will score enough goals to seriously make any inroads into the top eight this season.
The Reds have conceded just four goals in their last 14 Premier League home games and a fourth straight win without conceding at home to Palace is expected (4/5 with Sky Bet).