An independent review commissioned by the Public Expenditure Minister of plans for a metro system for Dublin has warned “unknown unknown” risks could push the cost of the project to €23.39bn. This is almost two-and-a-half times the official Government estimate of €9.5bn published earlier this month.
second review of the proposed Metrolink by a body affiliated to the European Investment Bank (EIB) has claimed the projected number of passengers using the 19.3km line between the city centre and Swords via Dublin Airport may be overestimated.
This Jaspers report estimates passengers in the first year of service at 40-45 million compared to the official estimate of 53 million.
Both reports also expressed concern that the metro system will duplicate existing bus and Luas services along parts of the route, particularly the city centre and Ballymun, which could undermine the viability of other public transport services.
Jaspers, which provides technical assistance to the EIB and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development with the aim of promoting efficient use of EU structural funds, estimates passenger numbers on the Luas Green line between Broombridge and the city centre could fall by 20-30pc.
A report by the Major Project Advisory Group (MPAG) — which was established by the Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath last December — said the cost estimates provided to Government by Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) and the National Transport Authority (NTA), which ranged from €7.16bn to €12.25bn, could understate the potential Exchequer funding required for the project. It claimed the figure could potentially be as high as almost €23.4bn.
The group, chaired by former TII chief executive Michael Nolan, said the TII/NTA calculations had not factored in “unknown unknown” risks in their figures.
The group warned that delays in implementing the metro project could result in additional costs of €380m per annum and expressed concern that Metrolink could face significant challenges in the planning process.
The MPAG also observed the benefits of the metro project had not been subject to the same level of analysis as costs. It claimed the long-term benefit of reduced road congestion was uncertain in the absence of details about any plans to introduce measures to restrict the use of cars in Dublin.
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An artist’s impression of how an entrance to the Metrolink might look on O Connell Street
Meanwhile, the Jaspers report said there were “a number of uncertainties” about passenger number forecasts, which included the long-term impact of Covid-19, the impact of the DART+ and Bus Connects projects as well as “optimistic” figures on numbers using Dublin Airport and “ambitious” population growth figures.
Its report on Metrolink claims the project is “an inherently risky investment”, while noting a light rail type solution could be constructed for 20pc less.
Nevertheless, it recognised Metrolink delivers up to 50pc more capacity than a Luas-like alternative.
The Jaspers report also acknowledged the proposed project does offer value for money with no evident feasibility issues in its strategy.
The report said a critical aspect was the technical design of the system, which was based on meeting a capacity of 20,000 passengers per hour.
It noted the proposed cost of Metrolink was comparatively expensive at €322m per kilometre compared to metro systems serving a similar passenger demand across Europe, which cost on average €122m per kilometre
The report attributed the higher costs for Metrolink to providing a fully segregated track between Dublin Airport and Swords, extending the southern section to Charlemont, the use of short distances between city centre stops and the large footprint of underground stations.
Both TII and NTA declined to comment on the two reviews by the MPAG and Jaspers.
However, the reports noted TII and NTA are confident their projections for passenger numbers are “robust”.
