With the Labour authorities set to current its first funds on 30 October, anticipation is mounting as companies and people alike brace for potential tax modifications and spending shifts.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has made it clear that tax hikes are inevitable, framing them as needed for restoring fiscal and financial stability. In her tackle on the authorities’s funding summit earlier this week, Reeves underscored the significance of this stability as a precursor to funding, signalling that companies perceive the necessity for such measures to “stability the books.”
Whereas Labour pledged to not elevate key taxes affecting working individuals, akin to revenue tax, VAT, and private nationwide insurance coverage contributions, the social gathering left the door open to elevating employers’ nationwide insurance coverage contributions, capital positive aspects tax (CGT), and different levies, together with these on the playing sector. The rumoured modifications have already sparked concern amongst some industries, with UK-based bookmakers seeing their shares fall following experiences of potential tax will increase of as much as £3 billion within the upcoming funds.
In the meantime, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has sought to calm nerves, dismissing hypothesis that CGT might rise to 39% as “broad of the mark,” however confirmed that tax will increase can be a part of the plan to revive the UK’s financial footing. This comes in opposition to a backdrop of criticism from the enterprise group concerning Labour’s dealing with of the financial legacy left by the earlier Conservative authorities, with claims of a £22 billion fiscal deficit requiring “tough choices.”
Right here’s a breakdown of the attainable modifications that Chancellor Reeves might announce within the Autumn Price range 2024:
Employers’ nationwide insurance coverage contributions
Some of the important potential measures is an increase in employers’ nationwide insurance coverage contributions (NICs). Though Labour dominated out rising NICs for workers of their election manifesto, they didn’t prolong this promise to employers. Jonathan Reynolds, the enterprise secretary, hinted at this risk, stating that elevating employers’ NICs may very well be a viable strategy to increase Treasury income with out instantly impacting staff.
A one share level enhance in employers’ NICs might elevate roughly £8.9 billion a 12 months, providing a considerable increase to authorities funds because it seeks to plug the fiscal hole. Nevertheless, this transfer might face opposition from companies already combating larger prices amid inflation and rising rates of interest.
Capital positive aspects tax
Capital positive aspects tax (CGT) is one other space underneath scrutiny. Though Starmer has performed down the chance of CGT rising as excessive as 39%, the chancellor should look to extend CGT charges to deliver them extra according to revenue tax charges, or broaden the vary of belongings topic to CGT. At present, CGT is levied at 10% for basic-rate taxpayers and 20% for higher-rate taxpayers, with the next fee utilized to property transactions.
Rising CGT might elevate important income, but it surely additionally dangers disincentivising funding within the UK, notably within the tech and start-up sectors, which rely closely on capital funding. Some traders have already accelerated plans to promote their companies forward of potential tax will increase, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding this challenge.
Non-domiciled tax standing
The controversial non-domiciled tax standing, which exempts foreign-earned revenue from UK taxation, can also be on the desk. Whereas Labour has beforehand criticised the system for permitting rich people to keep away from UK taxes, there are issues that altering this standing might deter high-net-worth people and companies from finding within the UK.
Billionaire John Caudwell, a former Tory donor who switched to supporting Labour, warned in opposition to drastic modifications to the non-dom tax regime, cautioning that it might hurt the UK’s potential to draw rich traders. Any modifications to this tax standing would must be rigorously balanced to keep away from destructive impacts on inward funding.
Revenue tax thresholds
Though the chancellor is unlikely to lift revenue tax charges, she might decrease the thresholds at which the assorted tax bands kick in. At present, people pay 20%, 40%, and 45% revenue tax relying on their earnings, however decreasing the thresholds would deliver extra individuals into the upper tax brackets.
This transfer would enable the Treasury to extend income with out breaking Labour’s promise to not elevate revenue tax charges. In keeping with the Institute for Fiscal Research (IFS), decreasing the non-public allowance or the basic-rate restrict by 10% might generate an extra £10 billion and £6 billion, respectively, in annual income. Nevertheless, this method would nonetheless really feel like a tax hike to many, as it could successfully enhance the tax burden on middle-income earners.
Pensions
Reeves is anticipated to again away from earlier plans to chop tax reduction on pension financial savings, following warnings that such a transfer would disproportionately have an effect on public sector staff, together with academics and nurses. At present, pension contributions are eligible for tax reduction on the saver’s marginal fee of revenue tax, which means larger earners obtain 40% or 45% reduction on contributions.
Whereas decreasing pension tax reduction might probably elevate billions, it could danger alienating a key part of the voters and sparking backlash from unions and public sector organisations. In consequence, it appears seemingly that the chancellor will keep away from making important modifications on this space for now.
Inheritance tax
Inheritance tax (IHT) is one other space the place Reeves could introduce reforms. Whereas IHT at the moment applies to solely round 4% of estates, it’s typically considered as an unfair type of double taxation. Labour might look to extend income from IHT by eradicating exemptions for enterprise and agricultural belongings, that are at the moment handed on tax-free.
A cap on these exemptions, or their abolition altogether, might elevate round £2 billion yearly, in response to the IFS. Different potential modifications embody closing loopholes that enable rich people to keep away from CGT when passing on estates to their heirs, which might generate extra funds for the Treasury.
Gasoline obligation
Reeves could break with the Conservative custom of freezing gas obligation, which has been in place since 2011. Rising gas obligation might elevate an extra £6 billion a 12 months, which would offer a major income increase at a time when the federal government is trying to shut the fiscal deficit. This transfer might additionally assist steer motorists in the direction of extra environmentally pleasant autos, aligning with Labour’s inexperienced agenda.
Personal fairness income
The taxation of personal fairness income, notably carried curiosity, has lengthy been a contentious challenge. At present, carried curiosity is taxed as capital positive aspects slightly than revenue, which means non-public fairness executives profit from decrease tax charges. Rising the tax fee on carried curiosity to match revenue tax charges might elevate an extra £2 billion in income, although it might additionally result in behavioural modifications that cut back the general tax take.
Playing taxes
Reviews that the federal government is contemplating elevating taxes on UK-based playing firms by as a lot as £3 billion have already shaken the markets. Whereas Labour may even see the sector as a possible supply of great income, there are issues that such a transfer might hurt the trade and result in job losses.
Different tax choices
Reeves has dominated out a wealth tax, regardless of strain from commerce unions to introduce one. Nevertheless, the chancellor could introduce a brand new tax modelled on the well being and social care levy launched by Boris Johnson’s authorities in 2021. Such a levy might present a brand new income stream with out breaching Labour’s guarantees on revenue tax, VAT, or private nationwide insurance coverage contributions.
Fiscal guidelines
The chancellor might also tweak the fiscal guidelines to create extra room for public funding. By adopting various debt measures, akin to public sector web price (PWNW) or public sector web monetary liabilities (PSNFL), Reeves might enhance fiscal headroom by as a lot as £60 billion, offering extra funds for infrastructure and public providers.
